The 2020 China Rubber Annual Conference, 16 speakers discussed in depth the development trend of the rubber industry under the epidemic
On June 5th, the online meeting of the "2020 China Rubber Annual Conference" will continue to be held. Focusing on the second theme "Economic Outlook and Industrial Innovation", 16 speakers and business leaders gave a wonderful report on macroeconomic development and the business environment of the rubber tire industry, introducing the company's fight against the epidemic, resumption of work and production, and industry development. With the increasing "uncertainty" in the current world economic and trade situation, it is still too early for China's rubber industry to emerge from the impact of the epidemic.
Wang Fenghai, Deputy Secretary of the Party Committee and General Manager of Shanghai Futures Exchange, gave a speech first. He introduced the operation of the Shanghai Futures Exchange in 2019. The scale of trading has grown steadily, with trading volume ranking first in the world; trading varieties have been continuously enriched, among which No. 20 rubber futures are listed, and the standard warehouse receipt trading platform has been extended to natural rubber; internationalization continues to advance, and No. 20 rubber futures will help the development of the rubber industry; System construction has been continuously optimized, and marketization and legalization have been steadily advanced; helping enterprises to prevent epidemics in a solid and effective manner. By waiving delivery fees for all futures products, the burden is reduced for enterprises. This year, we will continue to carry out the targeted poverty alleviation work of natural rubber "insurance futures", strengthen cooperation with the association, and support rubber farmers and the rubber industry to fight the epidemic and resume production.
Chen Quansheng, a special researcher of the Counselor's Office of the State Council, made a report on "China's Economic Operation in 2020 and Global Economic Forecast". He used 70 minutes to describe in detail the state of my country's economic development since the outbreak of the epidemic. In the first quarter, total consumption fell by 15.8% year-on-year. Although the recovery of the manufacturing industry accelerated in April, the decline was still expanding. The level of automobile consumption is growing slowly, and the consumption policies implemented by the state will actually benefit enterprises and consumers, and have an effective promotion effect.
Rajiv Budhraja, Secretary General of the Indian Automobile Tire Manufacturers Association (ATMA), introduced the decline in the production and sales of the Indian automobile and tire industries during the epidemic. From March 24 to May 17, the two months of stagnation made it impossible for dealers and retail stores to operate, consumer funds were squeezed, and manufacturing labor was in short supply. Natural rubber raw materials have also been severely affected. Tire manufacturers began to take the e-commerce route to meet suppressed demand and customer requirements. And launched the model CPKM based on the cost per kilometer (drivers pay according to the number of kilometers traveled using tires). He analyzed that the tire industry will not recover until the middle of 2021, and then accelerate its recovery in 2022.
Gao Yanchen, chairman of Qingdao Wanlong High-tech Group Co., Ltd., made a report on "5G Drives Production and R&D Revolution in Rubber Industry". He pointed out that the outbreak of the epidemic will accelerate the advancement of intelligence and digitization. 5G is the support of "Industry 4.0" and the cornerstone of Digital China. It brings not only a technological revolution, but also a huge revolution in the way of production, life, and survival. He introduced the status quo of the digital development of tire factories, the architecture model, implementation path, and goals of smart tire factories in the 5G era. Only with 6 skills can we build a fully functional parallel smart tire factory.
Roxanna B. Petrovic, project chief of the International Association of Synthetic Rubber Producers (IISRP), reviewed the global synthetic rubber market in 2019 and looked forward to 2020. She pointed out that the epidemic has delayed the construction of new synthetic rubber projects and expansion projects. It has had a significant impact on the automotive industry and the tire industry, but the increased demand for high-performance tires and medical protective products in the new energy vehicle market has brought opportunities to the synthetic rubber industry.
Liang Aimin, President of China Synthetic Rubber Industry Association, introduced the types of enterprises in the industry, the distribution of production capacity, changes in supply and demand, and the situation of import and export. He pointed out that the concentration of my country's synthetic rubber industry has continued to increase, product structure adjustment has accelerated, new products have continued to emerge, new processes have accelerated, and the pace of going global has accelerated. Looking forward to the future, there will be a relatively long period of synthetic rubber raw materials, relatively overcapacity, and low prices; enterprise mergers and reorganizations and high-end products are the general trend, and overseas transfer of production capacity will accelerate; under the influence of consumption habits and market trends, energy conservation, The demand for environmentally friendly and functional materials will continue to grow; innovation-driven, the integration of production, education and research, and the integration of upstream and downstream are the inevitable choices to move towards high-end.
Jom Jacob, a senior analyst at the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC), gave an outlook on the global natural rubber industry under the background of the new crown epidemic. He pointed out that as the world's largest natural rubber consumer, although China is gradually returning to normal, China's tire industry is heavily dependent on exports, and the global epidemic is still continuing. In addition, the procurement of raw materials from abroad has also been affected, which means that competition and transaction costs are higher than before.
Regarding the consumption of natural rubber in 2020, he predicts that China will drop by 5.6%, India by 21.3%, the EU by about 6%, and the United States by about 8%. The world expects a decline of 12.2% in the first eight months of this year.
Regarding the production of natural rubber in 2020, he predicted that the world will fall by 4.7%, and the major rubber producing countries will be much lower than the previous year.
Huang Da, Investment Director of Ahuida Financial Consultants Pte Ltd, believes that this year and next will be a period of global economic recession, the epidemic has become a destabilizing factor, and the continued strength of the U.S. dollar will cause weakness in commodities. He predicted that the "bottom" of natural rubber prices in the second half of the year will be $1.0/kg, and there will be great resistance to rebounding to $1.2/kg. At the end of 2021, if it breaks through US$1.40/kg, it means that prices will start to rise and return to a bull market trend.
Hu Hui, senior manager of the Second Commodity Department of Shanghai Futures Exchange, introduced the trading situation of my country's natural rubber futures market. In 2019, the transaction volume was 6.45 trillion yuan, and the transaction amount was significantly affected by price. The natural rubber futures market was operating steadily, and the participants were more rational. In the first four months of this year, the turnover was 2.07 trillion yuan; the turnover of No. 20 rubber futures was 92 billion yuan, accounting for 0.28% of the trading value on the Shanghai Futures Exchange and 0.13% of the national commodity futures market. In 2019, the delivery volume of natural rubber futures was 234,600 tons, an increase from 2018.
In the "Listen to · Voices from Enterprises" section, Zhang Wei, Director and Deputy General Manager of Shandong Haomai Machinery Technology Co., Ltd., Ni Xuewen, Chairman of Nantong Pulli Rubber Co., Ltd., Zhu Renen, Chairman of Yunnan Jili Industry and Trade Co., Ltd., and Pirelli Tire Group Marco Spinetto, global director of R&D knowledge management and regulations, Rong Sanyou, deputy general manager of Jihua Group, Shen Gengliang, chairman of Zhejiang Shuangjian Rubber Co., Ltd., and Yang Fuyun, general manager of Guangdong Guangken Rubber Group Co., Ltd., respectively introduced the company's response to epidemic prevention and resumption of work The resumption of production and the operation of the industry.