On August 6, at the "National Petroleum and Chemical Industry Economic Situation Analysis Conference" held by the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Association, Xu Wenying, Vice President and Secretary-General of the China Rubber Industry Association, discussed the overall operation of the rubber industry and its development in the second half of the year. Carried out analysis and outlook.
According to the association's statistics on 370 key member companies in 11 majors including tires, tires, rubber hoses, rubber products, rubber shoes, latex, carbon black, comprehensive utilization of waste rubber, rubber machinery molds, rubber additives, and framework materials, the current price was achieved in the first half of the year. The total industrial output value was 158.412 billion yuan, down 11.86% year-on-year (the same below); sales revenue was 157.055 billion yuan, down 12.86%; the export delivery value was 47.489 billion yuan, down 17.62%; the export rate (value) was 30.24%, a decrease 1.75 percentage points. Realized profits and taxes of 11.261 billion yuan, a decrease of 13.40%; realized profits of 7.572 billion yuan, a decrease of 19.21%; sales revenue margin was 5.55%, a decrease of 0.52%. There were 63 loss-making enterprises, an increase of 53.66%; losses of loss-making enterprises were 1.107 billion yuan, an increase of 99.81%; finished goods inventory was 31.20 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.52%.
There are three main characteristics of industry operation in the first half of the year:
First, the industry’s main economic indicators have fallen sharply year-on-year, including industrial output, profits, profits and taxes, exports, etc., which have all dropped by nearly 20% year-on-year, but the decline has shown a narrowing trend. Since March, month after month has been better.
Second, the export delivery value of the industry has declined, and the decline has continued to expand; the export rate (value) has fallen, and there is no sign of stabilization.
Third, the change in the number of loss-making companies and the amount of loss will show the situation of the industry's strongest Hengqiang.
Xu Wenying believes that the overall operation of the industry in the second half of the year will first depend on the control of the world epidemic, because China's rubber products are highly dependent on exports, especially tires, which are more than 40% dependent on foreign markets. Second, the evolution of Sino-US relations and the US election in November will have a profound impact on the world economy. Due to too many uncertain factors in the second half of the year, it is very difficult to predict specific output, so here is an analysis of the economic operation trend in the second half of the year.
1. Analyze the trend of total industrial output value. According to the forecast of the Organization of Natural Rubber Producing Countries, the production and demand of natural rubber in major rubber-producing countries in the world in 2020 will be much lower than in 2019, and the total demand will drop to 13 million tons. Among them, China's natural rubber consumption dropped by 5.6%, India by 21.3%, the European Union by 6%, the United States by about 8%, and the world's first 8 months are expected to drop by 12.2%. Since natural rubber is the main raw material of the rubber industry, a similar assessment of the total output value can be made by predicting the consumption of natural rubber. It can be seen from the data that the output of China's rubber industry has declined, but the downward trend is obviously better than that of major rubber product producing countries such as the United States, the European Union and India.
Second, analyze the industry's recovery speed. Since the rubber industry is closely related to the automobile industry, the recovery of the automobile industry has a huge impact on the rubber industry. Therefore, the recovery of the Chinese rubber industry in the following six months depends on the recovery speed of the global and Chinese automobile industry.
Third, analyze the export situation. Overall, exports have gradually recovered in the past two months. According to the feedback from tire dealers, the European market has recovered to 90%, and other markets are also gradually recovering. The proportion of exports is expected to continue to rise. But the premise is that overseas markets continue to resume work and production.
In addition, in the second half of the industry, it should be noted that export-dependent enterprises will still be more difficult. However, the situation of different rubber products will be different in the second half of the year. For example, the demand for medical protective gloves will continue to grow, while the automotive rubber products that are severely affected by automobile sales will turn from weak to strong in the first half of the year.
The hope for the rubber industry in the second half of the year is that the entire industry should uphold a more "open, innovative and inclusive" mindset, strengthen industrial upgrading through digitalization and intelligence, develop more new products, think about new retail models, and strengthen talent training and technology research and development. .
In the current epidemic, although there are many difficulties, one should not lose confidence. As General Secretary Xi Jinping said at the entrepreneurs forum, enterprise development must be "not afraid of difficulties", the society should "work hard" and promote entrepreneurship. Share worries and responsibilities for the country, and achieve special deeds in special times. I hope China's rubber industry can turn dangers into opportunities and work hard to build China's rubber industry into a strong country.